Wanted to touch on the hype surrounding Bryce Harper and put to black and white my prediction of what will happen with him.
For those of you not familiar with him, a recent Sports Illustrated article was written on the phenomenon that is Bryce Harper. I attached a link to the article to see what the hype is about (click on Title "Bryce Harper" for link). The article is billed as "Baseball's LeBron".
In a nutshell, he's from Las Vegas, 16 and just completed his Sophomore year of high school. He's big, strong and very talented. I believe they have him listed as 6'3", 205 and claims he throws 96 mph. His main position is catcher. After reading the article, it wouldn't be a surprise if he also parted the Red Sea and walked on water.........
In the story, they talk about how he's dominated at every level he's ever been in, never challenged, hits long home runs and is a man playing among children. There's even talk by his parents of him getting his GED, leaving school and entering the professional ranks early. Thought this would be a good time to shed some light on some of the Paul Bunyan stories....
1) HR Derby - The article mentions how he was in an international home run hitting contest last year at Tropicana Field and hit a 502 foot home run and being awarded the Babe Ruth Award for hitting the longest home run. A quick google search showed that's correct, but what the SI article fails to mention is not only did Harper NOT win the contest, he actually came in 5th. I feel sorry for the 4 guys that finished in front of him that got zero mention (including Christian Walker from Pennsylvania who won......). Here's a link to that write up: http://www.mister-baseball.com/europeans-add-power-showcase-hr-derby-resume/
2) High School Domination - The SI article mentions how his parents feel he needs to be challenged and may leave high school early in order to turn pro quicker. I looked up his stats on Max Preps and was shocked, SHOCKED, to discover he wasn't THAT dominate.... He had a very good year, especially for a Sophomore, but in reading the article, I was expecting him to have Bobby Stahel stats...... (inside joke, another Nevada Sophomore who had an incredible season, yet never gets mentioned......). The Las Vegas Wildcats were a better than average team, making the state tournament but being eliminated in the first round. Here's Harpers stats from the season: .569 batting average, .689 OBP, 3 HR's, 22 BB, 26 RBI's and 12 Doubles. Great stats, no doubt, but not Paul Bunyanesce...... The argument I hear is he was pitched around and I'm sure he was to an extent. The 22 walks were a lot, but someone else on the team had 15 walks and someone else 13. He also led the team in average and OBP and tied for the lead in HR's and doubles. He was second in RBI's. Here is the link to Max Preps if you want to look over his season stats: http://tinyurl.com/m353vz
As a comparison, here are Bobby Stahel's stats for the season. .762 batting average, .814 OBP, 5 HR's, 29 BB's, 56 RBI's and 12 Doubles. Here's the Max Prep link: http://tinyurl.com/nnohk7
Stahel is also a Sophomore catcher in Nevada, maybe he should be the "LeBron of Baseball"!
3) Pro Prospect - He's a talent. I'm not saying he's not, but lets realistically look at his potential to become a pro player. I'm on record saying if he ever makes "The Show" it'll be as a pitcher, not a position player. I'm not sure how tall his parents are or other family members, but if he's just 16 and already 6'3", I gotta think he's not done growing and has 2"-4" still to go.... If he ends up 6'7", he'll have a hard time hitting at that height. His strike zone will be too big for professional major league hitters to exploit. There have been very few successful major league hitters ever at that height. Dave Winfield was 6'6" and obviously great but who else? Richie Sexson had a nice couple of years but is no longer in baseball and I believe he was listed at 6'8". There's a reason most of the best hitters of all time were 6'2" and under. Certainly at 6'7", Harper will never be a catcher at that size. Now there have been many successful pitchers at that height and that's why I feel if he's ever able to make it to the major leagues, it'll be as a pitcher.
By the way, this is not the first time I'd heard of Bryce Harper. His name has been out there for a few years and the talk has started to take on a legend of it's own.
I'm not knocking the boy. From everything I've read and heard, he seems like a good kid and his parents just want what we all want for our kids, which is happiness and success in life. I just feel this is an instance where the media takes a story or rumor and runs with it. They see a chance to build someone up and make them larger than life.
I wish Harper well and hope he is successfull, but let's be realistic and let him enjoy being a kid. That age is tough enough as it is without national media attention focused on you. His next 5 years are going to be under a microscope.
I'm sure we'll all follow him but when he doesn't turn out to be the next LeBron, don't call him a failure. Maybe, if he's lucky, he'll be the next "Stahel"!
Bill
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A few of my friends and I were sitting around talking about sports earlier this afternoon and I mentioned the Bryce Harper article that was in Sports Illustrated. I was a bit surprised to hear that none of them had ever heard of him. I showed them the article, and while they were reading it, I googled 'Bryce Harper' and did a little research of my own as well... one of the links I clicked on took me to this blog.
I have never read any of your work before this, so I don't really know anything about you or what kind of a writer you are... does everything you blog about have such a negative spin to it? I have to say, that was not at all what I had expected to read. Anyone can make a bold statement like you did when you said that Harper won't end up a catcher if he makes it to the big show... but it takes a real journalist to step up to the plate (pun intended) and give your readers some actual FACTS to back them up. You are entitled to your opinion, and I respect that 100%. But I would like to say a few things in response to those opinions.
For starters, the average male is done growing beteen the ages of 14-18 years old. Judging by his looks and how deap his voice is... I am willing to bet that Bryce Harper is as tall as he's going to get. At the absolute most he may grow another half inch, but not much more... and definitely nowhere near 2-4 more inches. Just take a look at you and your friends when you were in high school... how many of them were 6'-2" or 6'-3" when they were 16 years old? Now look at how many of them ever grew to be 6'-5" or taller? Most likely none of them did.
I also felt that you were a bit misleading in the way you presented Harper's stats from his sophomore season with the Las Vegas High School baseball team. You did mention the fact that his stats were affected by the opposing pitchers never throwing him anything hittable, but you needed to go into greater detail so the reader knows exactly how it effected his stats. It's probably a good idea for you to mention the other leagues he plays in, and include those stats as well. His high school team - Las Vegas High School - competes at the highest level of competition they have in the state of Nevada. None of the pitchers are talented enough to compete with a hitter of Harper's caliber... they would rather walk him than let him hit a homerun. The players around Harper aren't anywhere near his ability either, so the other team simply giving him a free base on balls - eliminating any possibility to hit a homerun - is a real advantage to them. For his stats to be as good as they are considering everything, it's actually very impressive.
His stats with his high school's team don't give you a very good idea of how good he is because of the low level of competition... the summer all-star leagues are where the accurate stats are at. He is still the best, but the people around him are good enough that they have to pitch to him. For example, the all-star tournament in Alabama that he played in just before he started high school... in the 4 games he was 12/12 at the plate, with 1 double, and 11 (eleven) homeruns.
The bottom line is that you are entitled to your own opinion, no matter what it may be. You have yours, I have mine, Bryce has his own, and the NBA scouts and analysts have theirs. I would like to know though, what made you feel this way about Bryce Harper not only playing a completely different position, but that he won't be nearly as good as what all the experts are saying?
Hi Wayne - thanks for the comments and feedback, I appreciate it.
Just to clarify a couple things:
1) I'm not a journalist, just a guy with an opinion. Nothing more, nothing less.
2) My intent was not to speak negatively about Harper, but more to point out things Sports Illustrated and other magazines have failed to mention. At the end of my write up, I mention that I wish him well and hope he's successful. My point was let him be a kid and enjoy himself instead of putting unneccesary expectations on him.
3) I'm actually very familiar with the level of play in Las Vegas and Nevada in general. I've followed most of the top leagues and teams there for about the last 8 years. My point in referencing Harpers stats from the season was to show he is human and not Superman (which is what the Sports Illustrated article would have you believe).
4) As to the pitching around him, I believe I covered that by pointing out Bobby Stahel's stats. More walks than Harper, along with the same or better offensive statistics. He's also from Nevada, also a sophomore, also a catcher and also 16.
5) Height - I didn't say he'd grow to be 6'7", what I said was IF he gets to that height, I doubt he'll make it as a position player. I myself grew 2'1/2" from the time I was 17 till I was 20 and certainly know of a lot of people (boys) that did the same. Not unusual to continue to grow till your 18. Will he? I don't know.
Last week I was in Colorado for a youth baseball tournament and I spoke with the director of the Western Region for this baseball organization. He's known Harper and his family for about 5 years and we had a good talk about him. He mentioned he thinks the dad is also trying to advance him to quickly but feels Harper is done growing.... Just thought I'd pass that along.
Thanks again for reading, it's always good to hear other peoples opinion on things and it'll certainly be interesting to follow Harper and see how he does.
Bill
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