Yes!

I was hoping you could bet on this. My guess? $100 million...

Elin's 5 year booty

Bill

Baseball Thoughts

Yeah, yeah, I know, more baseball....... But so what, it's my blog and I'll talk about whatever I want.

1) Trade - In regards to the three team trade with Philly, Seattle and Toronto. I like this deal a lot by the Mariners. Picking up Cliff Lee (even if it's for one year) was huge..... They have substantially upgraded their roster this winter. Pairing Lee with King Felix gives them as good a 1,2 as there is in baseball. They gave up a former number 1 pick (French Canadian closer Aumont) and a pair of good minor league position players but nobody that'll cripple their farm system and their team down the road. Philly. Don't really like this deal by them.... Going from Halladay to Lee is, at best, a slight improvement (debatable) and they have to give up Kyle Drabek who is potentially a near future number 1 starter. Halladay is good, I'm not saying he's not, but still, he's a year and a half older than Lee (Doc will be 33 in May) and in order to keep him, the extension contract is probably 5 years, $100 million (initial reports now have it at 3years, $60 million with a 4th year vested at another $20 million). Why not just keep Lee (and I love my lefties!), try to resign him but if you don't you get 2 number 1 draft picks..... Call me crazy, but I don't like this deal from the Phillies side. Toronto? Well they received a lot of young inexpensive talent which their team needs. We'll know in 3 years how good a deal this was for them.

2) Lackey to Boston - I'm on record as saying I'm not a big Lackey fan, but he is what he is and what that is is a winner. He won't be a number 1 in Boston but a number 3. Name a better number 3 starter in baseball....... I'll give you a hint. There isn't. Yes it took a lot of money, but it gives Boston a great rotation. He's a good club house presence and wants the ball. Kind of reminds me of Curt Shilling when he came to Boston, changed the mentality of the pitching staff and I think Lackey will do the same.

3) Angels - Wow, they've taken a blow this winter so far... Lost Figgins to Seattle and Lackey to Boston. Figgins, in my opinion, they didn't want back at the money he was looking for (and got). I think they're confident they can replace him (like they did last year when they lost Texeira and replaced him with Morales). They have a young Brandon Wood that they're going to give a shot to. Obviously they hope it works out like Morales and not McFearson.... However Lackey is another story. Reports I've been reading is they really thought they'd be able to eventually resign Lackey but if not, they thought they had a great shot at getting Halladay, now both are gone. They need another top notch starter. My guess is they start looking at Ben Sheets and Erik Bedard and depending upon health, try to sign one of them to a one year deal with incentives. Again, keep in mind here, I love my lefties....... Personally I'd love for them to sign Bedard. Back in 06 and 07, he was in Baltimore pitching in the AL East and was at times dominate. If healthy and motivated, this guy is a number 1. (Fun facts here about Bedard. From Canada. Never played high school baseball. Was 5'4", 120 when he graduated from high school. Grew 7" and gained 30 pounds in the summer before entering Jr. College in Connecticut. Gained another 30 pounds and put 10 miles an hour on his fastball in college... He'll be 31 in March, but due to the fact he wasn't a pitcher growing up, I think his arm still has quite a few years left in it.

4) A Frustrating Rant - The rumors keep swirling that Boston is still trying to trade for Adrian Gonzalez from the Padres. I have no idea whether that's true or not (although I hope it is!), but I keep reading on the internet from baseball fans saying the Padres would never trade Gonzalez. The reason they give? They keep saying if the Padres traded "AGon" no one would ever go watch their games.... When I hear someone say that I think it's the most ridiculous statement...... Look I like Adrian Gonzalez a lot and think he's a great player but here's the deal. Let's say you're a Padres fan. Are you seriously telling me that your getting up on a Saturday morning and saying to the wife "yes I know our Padres suck but lets pack up our 2.5 kids, drive to Petco Park and spend $75 dollars (Gas, Parking, Tickets, Concessions) because we want to watch Adrian Gonzalez have his 4 at bats"? No your not going to do that no matter how much you "love" Adrian Gonzalez. You go to the game for the experience, atmosphere and hoping your team does well that day. If the Padres put a winning product on the field, they'll draw a hell of a lot more people than if they suck and Adrian Gonzalez gets 4 at bats. If the Red Sox offered a package of Clay Buchholz, Casey Kelly and Lars Anderson (or Casey Kotchman), the Padres would be better this year and potentially substantially better in 3 years, than they would right now with Gonzalez at 1st base. If Buchholz turns into the number 1 stud a lot (not all) think he will, isn't that a better way to go for the Padres and if that happened, do you think people wouldn't show up to Padre games because Adrian Gonzales got traded? Anyway, irritates me when I hear people say no one would go to games if such and such got traded. That's just crazy talk.......

Bill

Is Scott Boras The Anti Christ?

I say no!

I've never understood the criticism he gets for being good at his job. He's an agent. His job is to get his client the best contract he can. Apparently he outworks other agents and goes above and beyond in representing his clients. At any time his client could say "no, I don't want to go there", or "I want a better deal" and Boras goes out and tries to do that.

As he's said, he doesn't write the checks, he only goes in and talks to the owners (or GM's) about his client and what and why they're asking for the deal they are..... It's out of his hands at that point.

What's wrong with that?

While I'm on baseball, here's another item I keep seeing which drives me crazy. I keep reading and hearing about "fans" saying they're sick of seeing the Yankee's and Red Sox buy everyone.... Other than Manny Ramirez (7/8 years ago) and Dice K, who has Boston "bought" that they out bid people for? They traded for Josh Beckett (and gave up Hanley Ramirez and took on a large Mike Lowell contract). They signed JD Drew when the Dodgers decided he wasn't worth the money and they signed Curt Shilling (however they didn't outbid for him, actually they had to fly down to Arizona over Thanksgiving and talk him into taking their contract as he had multiple competing offers). Pedro Martinez? They traded two top minor league pitchers to get him (Carl Pavano and Tony Armas Jr.). They are not the Yankee's (and believe me, I'm not knocking the Yankee's for running their team the way they do), their payroll this past year was about $80 million lower than the Yankee's along with also being lower than the Mets and Cubs. They are not out "buying" everyone. A good portion of their team is home grown and they made some smart deals to bring in players, but they certainly haven't gone out and "bought" everyone. Yes they've bought a few just like the Met's, Cubs, Angels and others have done, but they're not the ones breaking the bank.

Anyway, just had to rant on that.

Bill

It Might Be Cold Outside, But My Stove Is Hot!

Figured I'd put to "paper" some of my thoughts and predictions concerning the baseball free agents and events at the winter meetings.

With the purse strings opening up compared to last year (well the Yankee's always have their purse open), a few more deals are being done this year and free agents are receiving better offers than they did at this time last year.

Here are some thoughts:

1) Three Way - Figured I'd start out with the big deal so far which is the 3 way trade by the Yankee's, Tigers and Dbacks. I think this was a good deal all around. The Yankee's didn't have to give up any of their high level prospects and got a 27 year old outfielder close to the prime of his career. It gives them leverage against Damon assuring that they don't have to over pay for him if he wants to come back. Look for Granderson to hit 35 to 40 homeruns this year. The Tigers cleared some salary and got back some good young talent from the Yankee's and a possible stud pitcher in Scherzer (from the Dbacks). Arizona was willing to let him go as apparently they have some injury concerns with Scherzer (in case you haven't seen him pitch, he's got a funky motion). They get back Edwin Jackson, another fine young pitcher who seems to be coming into his own. Deal seemed to work all around..

2) Pudge - I don't understand this signing by the Nationals... They pay an aging catcher $6 million over two years. He's basically a backup catcher at this point and they quadrupled his salary over last year.. He's not known as a good developer of young pitchers and with Strasburg hopefully coming up next year, you'd think they'd put a higher priority there. As a comparision, The Brewers signed 38 yr old catcher Greg Zaugn to a 1 year deal for 2.5 million. At this stage in their careers, he's a better hitter then Pudge and he calls a better game. This was not a good signing.

3) Mariners - I'll do a catch all category here for the M's. They signed Figgins, which I think short term is a good deal, but I'm leary of years 3 and 4 here (and rumor has it there is an option for year 5). Figgins is a soon to be 32 year old who makes his living off his legs. I'm sure he takes care of himself, but some where over the next couple years he's going to start losing his speed, and that's his game. That's the reason the Angels didn't want to go beyond a 3 yr contract. It was a nice deal for Figgins getting financial security. Why would he sign with the Mariners? Well along with the contact, multiple coaches in Seattle used to be in the Angels organization and worked with him in the minor leagues. Also, Figgins fiance is from Vancouver and if you don't think that didn't play a part here, then your fooling yourself.. Supposedly the Mariners are also targeting Jason Bay, which makes complete sense for them. Bay fills a need for a big bat that plays left field. Why would Bay sign there? Well, his wife is from Seattle and they own a home 25 minutes from Safeco Field. If the Mariners come within shouting distance of the other offers he's receiving, I expect this to be a done deal.

3) "Doc" Halladay - I've no idea where he's going and from all the reports I've read, no one else does either... What and whenever the deal happens, it'll eventually go through the Yankee's. Whether they want to part with Joba and Hughes (or one of them and minor league catcher Jesus Montero) will be the question. My prediction? I think the Jays hold on to him through the winter and in February/March, deal him to either the Yankee's or Angels. Halladay has said he wants to be with a team that trains in Florida however the Angels can give him the other thing he craves, which is a chance to win and challenge for the World Series. After previously saying they wouldn't give up Aybar in a trade, the Angels have now changed that stance and a package of Aybar, Saunders, Napoli and a mid level minor leaguer would get the deal done.

4) John Lackey - I think he signs with the Red Sox or as a long shot, the Rangers. I think he really wants to sign with the Rangers, but they can't pay him what he wants. I wouldn't be surprised to see him take a shorter length deal in hopes the ownership situation gets straightened out there and a year or so down the road can pay him a much bigger deal.

5) Rich Harden, Eric Bedard and Ben Sheets - All three pitchers are free agents and available. They've all had injuries (with Sheets out all last year) but if healthy, all have number 1 stuff. I see one of these going to the Red Sox (Harden), one going to Baltimore (Bedard where 3 years ago was a stud) and one goes to the Cardinals (Sheets where Dave Duncan will rehabilitate him just like he did Chris Carpenter). Harden has also been in talks with the Mariners and Rangers, so we'll see where that goes.

6) Matt Holliday - Signs with Boston. If Bay doesn't resign, they'll go get Holliday. Also, watch the Giants here quietly make a play for Holliday. Put Holliday in that lineup with their pitching and they could be the favorite in the NL West next year.

7) Pettite - Great resign by the Yankee's. I love my left handed pitchers!

8)Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon - One resigns with the Yankee's (Matsui) and one signs with the Rays (Damon). Another option for Matsui is the White Sox. I think the Rays trade Pat Burrell for some pitching and bring in Damon on a one year contract. Damon lives in Florida so it's a "close to home" thing..... Another team showing some interest is are the SF Giants.

9) Jermaine Dye, Jim Thome, Vlad Guerrero - Wow, no idea on these DH guys..... All three are probably going to be sitting around come January and screaming at their agents to get them a contract anywhere. You'd think they'd have an interest in Texas as that stadium is tailor made for them hitting. Beyond that? Someone like Baltimore would have an interest.

10) Padres - They're under considerable pressure to cut payroll (even after having the second lowest in the major leagues last year), so they're looking to make some deals. I, however, don't think they'll unload Adrian Gonzalez like people are speculating. They'll hang unto him for another year. Instead they'll trade Heath Bell and Kevin Kouzmanoff which are both salary arbitration eligible. Look for Kouzmanoff to go to the Twins as they have shown quite a bit of interest in him.

11) Kevin Millwood - Texas is looking to unload (which would free up some cash to get Lackey) Millwood and Baltimore is the rumored destination. On another note, it's good to see Baltimore trying to improve their team with possible free agent acquistions and trades. That should be a marquee franchise with their history and stadium, but Peter Angelos has run it into the ground......

12) Wolf to the Brewers - 3 years, $30 million. I don't know what to make of this...... I think the Brewers are over paying as if I'm them, I'd rather take a chance one of the Harden, Bedard, Sheets and save some money. Hell, they could have pried Lowe away from Atlanta by giving up very little (mid level prospect) and be paying the same Lowe as Wolf. I'd much rather have Derek Lowe than Randy Wolf.... but that's just me.

13) Rafael Soriano - The Braves are anxious to move him since he excepted salary arbitration. I'm hearing the Rays are interested but money is the issue.....

14) Adrian Beltre - Although the Mariners have offered him arbitration, they're really hoping he declines and goes elsewhere. Some teams reporting interest are the Red Sox (If they can trade Lowell), Baltimore and the Giants.

Anyway, those are a few of the deals and free agents out there I've been thinking about. I know there are a bunch of other guys I failed to mention and obviously the majority of the teams, but these are the ones that are currently in the mix.

Bill

Monday Morning (Wet) Ramblings

Well we're finally getting some rain here in Southern California. Nice to turn my sprinklers off.

Here are a couple items I've been thinking about:

1) Playing The Front 9 - Seems that daily, Tiger Woods extra marital affairs count keeps going up.... This morning it was up to 6 girls that have come forward saying they've had affairs with him and rumors out of nightclubs in Vegas have that count going up to at least 12 by the end of the week. If true, it'll be interesting how this plays out. Obviously he's got a prenup, but will be curious if Elin hangs around after all this. 1 or 2 girls I can see them going into damage control and writing it off but where it stands now, this has been repeated affairs and no way for her to publically support him....

2) Mariners - I've been following the off season moves and rumors out of Seattle. They've signed Chone Figgins and rumors keep intensifying they're making a big push to sign Jason Bay. Seems unlikely these guy's would go there, but here's the deal. Figgin's fiance is from Vancouver and Bay's wife is from there (and they own a home 20 minutes from Safeco Field). If we're learning anything from Tigers indiscretions, it's never underestimate the power of a woman! Seattle could be dangerous next year, it'll be interesting to follow them.

3) Padres - I'm adopting them as my favorite National League team. Their new GM, Jed Hoyer, is from New Hampshire and how can I not follow and support someone from NH? We all know about their small payroll and amazing park, but with new ownership, I see some good things in their future. My regret this past college football season is that I "adopted" the UCLA football team instead of Oregon's. Oregon's new head coach is the former Offensive Coordinator of the University of New Hampshire (and was born and raised in Manchester, NH). I debated whether to jump on Oregon's bandwagon when he got promoted to head coach last year, but decided to stay local with UCLA. I am happy with how UCLA's program is coming on however if I'd gone with the Ducks, my "team" would be going to the Rose Bowl..... I'm not making that mistake again, hence I'm jumping on the Padres bandwagon.

4) The Undefeated' - Colts and Saints keep racking up wins with both moving to 12-0 on the season. Both have had tight wins in the last few weeks but have managed to pull the games out which says a lot about the heart and desire of the teams. I still don't think either will make the Super Bowl, but they're having great regular seasons.

5) World Cup - I'm not a huge soccer fan (can't stand the MLS), however I do get into the World Cup. The whole national pride thing always draws me in. It's an amazing event and really fun to watch. I've been a big Brazil fan since 1975 (due to Pele) so you know who I'm rooting for. Yes, it's like being a fair weather fan in baseball and rooting for the Yankees but screw it, they're my soccer team! The World Cup will take place next year in South Africa in mid June to mid July. The draw for pairings took place last Friday and the U.S. received a good draw and "should" make it into the second round. I'll have more info as this gets closer, but you might want to start thinking about Christiano, KaKa, Messi, Torres, Rooney, Donovan, Eto and Xavi. Just some of the big names you'll be hearing about next summer.

6) TUF 10 Finals - The Ultimate Fighter season 10 wrapped up Saturday night with Roy "Big Country"Nelson beating Brendan Schaub in the finals. "Big Country" was probably the least exciting fighter in the house this season however he came in with the most experience and showed that, although he's not real fun to watch, the man can fight... In the finals, he knocked out Schaub in the first round showing he's got some standup to go along with his ground game. In a couple other fights on the card, Kimbo won a three round decision showing he's developing a ground game, and he may have a future yet in the sport. In another card (although not from this season's show), I was really impressed with Jon "Bones" Jones. He ended up getting disqualified in his fight with Matt Hamil (illegal use of the elbows), but the dude was impressive.... Completely dominated a very good fighter. Look for Jones to start climbing the rankings ladder as he's very talented.