Sunday, March 28, 2010

Ranking The Angels

With opening day closing in on us (Angels open Monday April 5th), I thought I’d go thru the Angels 25 man roster and rank them 25-1 in order of importance. This is not a list of who’s the best, but who’s most important for the Angels to have a good season.

Here we go:

25) Rob Quinlan – I thought the Quinlan era was over, but just like the Godfather, right when I think I’m out, they pull me back in…. I have nothing personal against Quinlan (although he is from Minnesota and, yes, I guess I do have an issue..), I’m sure he’s a nice guy and everything, but still, he’s pretty much useless. I would have preferred someone else to fill the final spot. My patience with “Quinny” is gone.

24) Brian Stokes – Right handed pitcher, filling a long relief role. He came over in the Gary Matthews deal with the Mets. Grew up in Mira Loma and went to Riverside Community College. He was an outfielder in college and only started pitching after graduating. So whenever someone says it’s too late to start pitching, look to Stokes. I’m pulling for him to do well.

23) Reggie Willits As much as I detest Quinlan, I love Willits! He’s the 4th or 5th outfielder coming in to spell someone and give them a day off. He’s also the designated “stolen base guy” coming in late in games when it’s tight and they’re looking to score. Fun, hard working kid the fans appreciate.

22) Jason Bulger Another long relief guy who might get some spot starts here and there if injuries pop up. Again, like Stokes, he didn’t start pitching till late (senior year in college). He has an over powering fastball (he’s hit triple digits before) which has gotten him to the major leagues, but it’ll be his ability to spot his curve which will make him a success or not.

21) Matt Palmer – Palmer went 11-2 last year with a 3.93 era as he filled the 5th starters role with the early season injuries to Lackey, Santana and the death of Adenhart. Maybe more impressive then the won /loss stat is that Palmer was the toughest pitcher in the league last year against right handed batters, who only hit .197 against him….. Bet you didn’t know that. He’s ready to fill in again if and when needed.

20) Howie Kendrick – Howard shows up here as I’m not quite sure at this point what he’s got. Injuries affect him every year. Those damn hamstrings… If healthy, I think he’s got a .320 average in him with some great defense, but he’s got to stay on the field. Due to the fact of injuries though, the Angels have some one as talented waiting in the wings.

19) Scott Shields - Shields is returning from patella tendon surgery in his left knee last June. If he can return to form, the Angels might boast the best bullpen in baseball (they still might without him). If he returns to form, Angels have multiple shut down guys they can go to from the 7th on. All indications so far this spring is the knee is going to be fine and with his arm being fresh after having most of last year off, I expect big things from him.

18) Juan Rivera – I’m the first to down play Rivera’s worth to the Angels. It wasn’t until I looked up his stats for this write up I realized what a good season he had last year. He batted .287 (.331 obp), with 25 hrs and 88 rbi’s. That’s pretty damn good. He’s not their number 3, 4 or 5 batter, so getting that sort of production from your number 6th or 7th batter is huge. I fully expect the same, quiet production from him this year.

17/16) Jeff Mathias / Mike Napoli Until one of them separates themselves, you have to rank them as a package deal. Mathias hitting came on in the postseason and if he can continue that, he’ll be the main guy (as he’s a better catcher than Napoli). These two are good friends and share a house together during the season and I’m not sure that’s such a good thing. I’m not saying they shouldn’t be friends and get along, but I’d really like to see one of them separate from the other and I think they’re in such a comfort zone and like each other, they’re continually playing down to the others ability, not pushing each other. Who knows… If one doesn’t step up though, they might both be gone next year when Hank Conger comes along (well maybe not both, but one of them).

15) Kevin Jepsen Initially I had him lower but when I started looking closer at the bullpen, this is a guy that stood out and moved up the rankings. After posting a 19.29 era and going on the disabled list in mid April, he was lights out the rest of the year. He developed a cut fastball which went well with his mid 90’s fastball. He made 8 consecutive scoreless appearances at one point and pitched respectably in the postseason appearing in 5 of the Angels 9 postseason games. He’s a closer in waiting and if Fuentes or Rodney struggle, you might be seeing Jepsen more and more in the 9th.

14) Brandon Wood – It's time. After posting some incredible numbers in the minor leagues over the last 5 years, Wood’s finally getting a shot at an every day job. In the couple cups of coffee he’s had in the majors, he’s struggled at the plate but I think given the 3rd base job and confidence to go out there every day, he’s going to do well. How well? I’m expecting Juan Rivera numbers this year (.285, 20 something homeruns and 80 plus rbi’s). He’s probably going to bat what? 8th, 9th? I’ll take that production from my number 9 hitter every day of the week. Also, what I think some people forget is he’s considered a great fielder. This isn’t some dh guy they’re rolling out in the field. He’s a converted shortstop that has a great glove. He’ll do just fine replacing Figgins at the hot corner.

13) Hideki Matsui I think Matsui is going to be a huge upgrade over Vladdy at DH. I loved Guerrero, but his time had come. His birth certificate may read 35, but if he’s not late 30’s, I’d be highly surprised. Matsui is no spring chicken, but last year he posted numbers of .274, 28 hr’s and 90 rbi’s (as compared to Vladdy’s .295, 15 and 50). Yes Guerrero was injured but I fully expect Matsui to out produce him again. I’ll take it.

12) Fernando Rodney – I’m really not sure what to expect from Rodney. Could be good or he could be a right handed version of Fuentes (meaning erratic...). Rodney had 37 saves last year with Detroit but he had a 4.40 era. He’s got an overpowering fastball so he comes in challenging guys. Expect to see him in the 8th but if Fuentes starts struggling, Rodney will get his shot to close.

11) Bobby Abreu Couldn’t have asked or expected more from Abreu last year. Along with the numbers (.293 average, .390 obp, 29 doubles, 15 hrs and 103 rbi’s), he was a club house leader and many guys credited having better seasons due to Abreu’s approach at the plate and how others learned from him. Can we expect the same? Probably not from the numbers standpoint, but I don’t see a huge drop off. He’s such a professional hitter (what that means I don’t really know, but I know it when I watch Abreu…) I think he’ll gradually decline but won’t have a huge drop off (like we’re seeing with Vladdy). You know what you’re getting from Abreu every game, and that means a lot.

10) Scott Kazmir Okay, we’ve reached the top ten and our first starting pitcher to make an appearance. I said it last year and I think it’s even more evident now. Trading for Kazmir was great. They gained a former number 1 lefty pitcher who’s only 26. Yes he struggled with Tampa in the 1st half last year, but if the problems had to do with his mechanics as most are saying, in his 5 big league seasons, he’s never had a losing record and until last year (due to first half) has never had an era over 3.77. Butcher is his old pitching coach in Tampa, so I think he’s going to have a great year this year. Oh and in case you didn’t know, I love my left handed pitchers!

9) Maicer Izturis Surprised to see “ice” so high on the list? He made it here because of his versatility in playing 2nd, 3rd and ss. Question marks out there on those positions but Izturis is capable of stepping in and doing a great job at any of those spots. He hit .300 last year (in 417 plate appearances) with an obp of .359, 65 rbi’s, 22 doubles and 13 stolen bases. He’s a .327 career hitter with runners in scoring position so he has no hesitancy in coming up with runners on. He has the ability to play every day so if someone struggles or goes down with an injury, don’t expect to see much (if any) drop off in production with Izturis in there.

8) Ervin Santana – It’s an even year so expect to see big things from “El Manejo”. For some reason he does better on even numbered years, so I expect him to bounce back from the 8-8, 5+ era he posted last year. I think the numbers he had in 08 (3.49 era, 16-7 record) are doable. He had a sprained elbow at the beginning of the year last year causing him to miss the 1st 5 weeks of the season, but he should be healthy this year. He’ll be slotted as the 4th starter and if healthy, has number 1 stuff.

7) Brian Fuentes – I like Fuentes. Was he lights out last year? No. Did he get the job done? Yes. He led the league in saves and this all while he was making an adjustment coming over from the National league. Did he get roped by Arod in the playoffs? Yes, but so do a lot of pitchers. I think he’ll be fine. His velocity was down a couple mph last year (88-90 where he wants to be 90-93), so this off season he hired a personal trainer and is (supposedly) in the best shape of his life. A lot of the teams fortunes rely on your closer, so he’s a huge cog for the Angels. Maybe last season wasn’t what we all hoped, but hell the guy saved 48 games, give him a break.

6) Torii Hunter – Great first half of last season, then injuries took their toll. However, while he was out, the Angels played some of their best baseball of the year so he’s not indispensable… Great to have and as he’s so quick to point out, he’s a “club house leader”….. that’s overrated in my book, but that’s fine. He obviously brings great defense to center field and works hard every day, that I respect. Barring injury, he’ll post his usual numbers.

5) Joe Saunders – Finally we reach the top 5, and what better spot to start then with a another lefty pitcher. Big Joe started last season with a knot in his shoulder which affected him thru the first half of the season, but after his stint on the DL, he went 7-0, with a 2.55 era in his final 8 starts of the year, givng him a record of 16-7, with a 4.60 era. Now healthy and having a great spring, Saunders is expected to have a big year.

4) Erick Aybar - I think Aybar is in store for big things. After taking over the full time ss position last year, he led the team in batting average and obp (.312 and .423). He’s fast, although hasn’t been asked to steal many bases in the past. Expect to see him increase that this year. He’s as good a ss defensively in baseball as they come. Expect him to be an all star candidate this year.

3) Joel Pineiro I put Pineiro here because a lot is expected of him coming over, and in theory, replacing John Lackey. Last year Lackey, dealing with early season injuries, went 11-8 , with a 3.83 era and a 1.27 WHIP. Pineiro finally lived up to his vast potential, hooked up with famed St. Louis pitching coach Dave Duncan, developed a sinker and had one his best seasons ever. He went 15-12 with a 3.49 era and a 1.14 WHIP. Will that continue? We’ll just have to wait and see. Angels are considered one of the best defensive teams in baseball and if Pineiro can continue to induce ground balls at the rate he did last year, he’s going to have a good season.

2) Kendry Morales – The biggest surprise on the team last year will now be counted on to put up the same production he did in 09. Last year he batted .306, with 34 homeruns and 108 rbi’s in what was basically his rookie season (or at least full time starting). Lots of questions about him at the beginning of the season, but he lived up to the high regard the Angels had in him and had an MVP type season. Can we expect the same? Well, for the Angels to be successful, he’s going to have to. They need that bat and production in the lineup.

11) Jered Weaver - Finally number 1. Angels have 5 solid, potential number 2 starters, but they need one of them to step up and be ace material in order for them to be a force in the playoffs. Coming out of college, Weaver had ace written all over him and he fell to the Angels in the draft due to the bonus money he was demanding. Now’s the time to see if he was worth it. Last season, with Lackey missing the first month, Weaver took over the number 1 spot and had a good year. He went 16-8, with a 3.75 era and a 1.24 WHIP. Hopefully he can lower his era a bit more this year and really fulfill his potential. I do think the Angels are going to win 95 games during the regular season and make the playoffs, but without Weaver posting Cy Young type numbers (19 wins and a sub 3 era), I don’t see them getting back to the World Series.


Bill



5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Quinlan! Ha, can't stand him also.

Bob G said...

It is clear you'll go to your grave defending Fuentes. Averaged 4walks per nine innnings and had a 1.40 WHIP which helps to explain his 3.93 ERA. Only pitched 55 innings in 60 appearances which means he was yanked a few times before flushing the game. Also,the Angels wanted no part of him in the ALCS.

Your lead candidate to replace Fuentes, Rodney, average 5 walks per nine innings with K/BB ratio of 1.5which explains why he is no longer in Detroit. The best closer, Mo, had a 0.9 WHIP, walked 1.7 per 9 and had K/BB ratio of 6.

I'm thinking Shields is next in line for the closer role but as one who roots against the Angels, I'm hoping it will be Rodney.

Bill Tolman said...

Yes I will, my sabermetric slanted friend! I'm first to admit he's no Rivera, but then who is? I actually think Fuentes will be just fine. Who else saved 48 games last year?

We'll see what the Yankee's do when these late 30 and 40 year guys finally start to break down. Can't wait for Joba Time!

Anonymous said...

Saw where Kazmir threw great yesterday. You're right, that deal may turn out to be a steal. What they'd give up for him? Sean Rodriguez or something right? That second baseman. What's he doing this spring? Is he starting or anything for Tampa? Can't believe they got a 26 year old lefty stud for basically nothing.

Bill Tolman said...

As it regards Sean Rodriguez...

I heard today he had a great spring for Tampa and will be their starting 2nd baseman. That's great news for him. As it was, he was going to be behind Kendricks and Wood with the Angels.

I hope he does well. Obviously I hope Kazmir does well too and if he does, I'd much prefer the young lefthanded pitcher.

Bill