When trying to predict NFL playoff games, go with the home team.
There, lesson learned.
Last week I tried to out smart myself, analyzing all the data, figuring out who had the "best" offense, defense, QB, etc, when all I should have done is look to see who was the home team.
All 4 home teams won this past weekend and, unfortunately for me, I picked 3 road teams to win. Will the visiting team win sometime? Sure, it'll happen, but in the NFL, it really is a big advantage to play at home in the playoffs. With the difference between a good team and an average team being about 6 points, anything can happen, so having that home field advantage is really a difference between winning and losing.
I could sit here and analyze all the games this coming weekend, but this week I'll make it really simple. Whoever's playing at home will win.
Green Bay, San Francisco, New England and Baltimore. There you go. Don't try to give me "but New Orleans is a scoring machine, can't be stopped" or "No ones playing better than Giants front four, they'll shut down Green Bay" or "Patriots defense is horrible, can't stop anyone". Don't want to hear it. You know why?
It doesn't matter. Pick the home team because they're going to win.
Hope that was helpful.
Bill
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