Note To Self

When trying to predict NFL playoff games, go with the home team.

There, lesson learned.

Last week I tried to out smart myself, analyzing all the data, figuring out who had the "best" offense, defense, QB, etc, when all I should have done is look to see who was the home team.

All 4 home teams won this past weekend and, unfortunately for me, I picked 3 road teams to win. Will the visiting team win sometime? Sure, it'll happen, but in the NFL, it really is a big advantage to play at home in the playoffs. With the difference between a good team and an average team being about 6 points, anything can happen, so having that home field advantage is really a difference between winning and losing.

I could sit here and analyze all the games this coming weekend, but this week I'll make it really simple. Whoever's playing at home will win.

Green Bay, San Francisco, New England and Baltimore. There you go. Don't try to give me "but New Orleans is a scoring machine, can't be stopped" or "No ones playing better than Giants front four, they'll shut down Green Bay" or "Patriots defense is horrible, can't stop anyone". Don't want to hear it. You know why?

It doesn't matter. Pick the home team because they're going to win.

Hope that was helpful.

Bill

Padres's Wheeling and Dealing!

I'm loving the action my small market team is taking! Maybe not earth shattering deals, but making moves here and there trying to reshape the team, looking for additions to take the team to the next level and staying within a limited budget. Not easy to do!

Today the Friars traded 1st base prospect Anthony Rizzo, who they'd acquired last year in a deal with the Red Sox for Adrian Gonzalez, to the Chicago Cubs. Rizzo became expendable once they acquired Yonder Alonso back in mid December from the Cincinnati Reds. Both highly touted 1st base prospects so the general thinking was one would probably go in order to help bring in more prospects. It turned out to be Rizzo.

In return the Padres received pitcher Andrew Cashner and outfielder Kyung-Min Na.

Cashner is the big get, as he's a former 1st round pick that has hit 101 on the radar gun (though usually throws in the upper 90's). He missed all last year with a shoulder injury though is said to be completely healthy now. He has been used as a starter but many believe his true calling is at the back end of the bullpen as a closer. Expect to see him with the Padres in some capacity when they break camp in the spring.

Na is a 20 year old native of Korea who split last season between rookie ball and low A. At times looked overmatched but is said to be very athletic. He's a guy you take a flyer on and see what happens.

From the Cubs standpoint, this probably means Prince Fielder won't be going to Chicago, as they'll give Rizzo every shot at the every day 1st base job. Next up for them is to try to find somebody that'll give them a bag of chips in return for taking Alfonso Soriano off their hands.

Go Friars!

Bill

Where Will Jeff Fisher End Up?

Former Tennessee Titan coach Jeff Fisher has now interviewed with both the Miami Dolphins and the St. Louis Rams for their head coaching position.

My guess is he'll end up in St. Louis. Franchise QB (Sam Bradford), #2 pick in the draft this year, play in the NFC West (and won the division last year) and he'll get a say in who the General Manager will end up being. Barring Miami throwing way more money at him (possibility), I think he goes to St. Louis. It's a better opportunity then the Dolphins job.

Besides it's always fun to continue throwing out the rumor that the Rams will be moving to LA and with Fisher from Southern Cal, it's just to good a connection. Will the Rams move? Who knows. No one thought they'd leave LA and it happened...

Bill

He A Bust?

With the new year on us and tv shows ramping up for their new season, thought it would be a good time to start my new column. Without further ado, I bring you:

"He A Bust?"

What constitutes a bust in professional sports? Well to me, it's 2 possibilities:

1) A guy drafted at the top of the draft, paid an inordinate amount of money, high expectations to help turn the franchise around, then, for whatever reason, doesn't pan out.

2) A free agent, paid a lot of money, to help an organization compete for a championship and doesn't come close to helping them compete, nor help raise interest in team and bringing other players with him.

Obviously the money factor has the most to do with it. A guy taken at the top of the draft, paid an extreme amount of money, taking up a high percentage of the cap, needs to produce for the organization. Win games, put fans in the seats and help increase television revenue. Lets face it, a guy taken in the 5th round, if he doesn't work out, no big deal, but a Sam Bradford, Cam Newton (to use two recent football examples), better work out. The organization needs them to be successful on a few different levels.

The first person I want to discuss here is John Wall from the Washington Wizards. To me he has all the makings of a BUST (side note - when I went to look up his stats, I discovered that Colin Cowherd on ESPN radio actually talked about John Wall today and basically said the same thing I'm saying. A write up of it can be found HERE).

First pick in the draft last year, signed a 3yr/16.5 million contract (NBA is slotted, most he could sign for). High expectations to turn the team around. He did "ok" for his rookie season. 16.5 points a game, 8.3 assists, 1.8 steals. Not bad, but not "Super Star" talent that'll move the Wizards to the next level. He had "buzz" coming in and some people outside DC wanted to see him initially, but now? Who's paying to go see John Wall play? Compare that to the first pick in the draft 2 years ago, Blake Griffin. You think people are paying to go to the arena to watch Griffin, or turning on their tv when the Clippers are on? Ah, yeah.

So far this year Washington is 0-5 and Wall is averaging 13.8 points per game, 6.8 assists per game and 4.8 turnovers a game. Not good. Still early, but he's regressing.

I just think he's got the potential to go down as a bust when it's all said and done. No marquee free agents are lining up to play with him (curse of death for a point guard by the way) and I think by this point it's obvious he doesn't have the game of a Kobe, LeBron, Dwayne Wade, where he can carry the team on his back and take them to the championship.

Now I'm not saying he's horrible or a bad person, I'm sure he's a great kid and it's not his fault he was the first pick in the draft, but he's not a player that is going to turn your franchise around (Like LeBron did when he went to Cleveland), he's more a complimentary piece, fringe all star, who'll be an ideal player to add to a team looking to make a championship run. Too bad he's going to be paid like the superstar and heighten the expectations. For my money, what does that make John Wall?

He A Bust!

Bill

NFL Playoff Prediction - Wildcard Weekend

Who's going to win the Super Bowl? I have no idea, and you know what? Neither does anyone else. Media members, NFL "experts", fans, it's all a guess.

With football being "one and done" and not a series like other sports, a lot of it comes down to who's healthy, who comes to play that day and what calls go their way.

Yes, you can make an educated guess that such and such team will win (better regular season record, home team, better QB, defense, etc), but with the margin of error small, it's a crap shoot. And anyone that tries to convince you otherwise is delusional.

Here's my guess about what will happen in the wild card games. I have a 50% chance of being right, so place your bets accordingly:

1) Cincinnati at Houston - AFC, 6 seed versus 3 seed - Houston's at home in their first playoff appearance as the Texans, but the Bengals are the healthier team. Bengals 21, Texans 17

2) Detroit at New Orleans - NFC, 6 seed versus 3 seed - Offensive shootout. I like the Saints at home with the difference being the head coaches. I like Sean Payton over Jim Schwartz. Saints 40, Lions 31

3) Atlanta at NY Giants - NFC, 5 seed versus 4 seed - I like the Falcons here. Matt Ryan steps up and has a big game and so does the the Falcons running game. Giants have been up and down all year and this week they're down after their emotional win against the Cowboys last weekend to make playoffs. Falcons 28, Giants 21

4) Pittsburgh at Denver - AFC, 5 seed versus 4 seed - At this point, everyone's followed the whole Tebow story. Denver's going to struggle scoring points we know that. Pittsburghs beaten up with Roethlisberger's high ankle sprain and Mendenhall being out with the torn ACL. Close, low scoring game, this won't be a blowout. Steelers 14, Broncos 9.

Those are my Stone Cold Lead Pipe Locks. I'm sure I'll be right, after all, I'm a fan.

Bill

Padres Trade!

When your small market team makes a trade, it's time to celebrate.

Padres GM Josh Byrnes pulled the trigger on the last day of the year and traded 2 minor league prospects for White Sox outfielder Carlos Quentin.

Quentin, a native San Diego product (and San Diego high school athlete of the year in 2000), is a 2 time all star coming off a season where he batted .254 with 24 hrs, 31 doubles, 77 rbi's and 53 runs scored. The right handed hitting Quentin will probably play left field and bat 4th. Jesus Guzman (who I expected to start in left), will now become a utility guy subbing in left and right field and in a platoon at first with Yonder Alonso.

Quentin is arbitration eligible and will probably make around $7 million this year and be a free agent after the season, so he'll be playing for a new contract.

The Padres traded minor league pitchers Simon Castro and Pedro Hernandez, the 16th and 17th rated prospects in their minor league system. Between this trade and the Latos deal, the Padres have added $9 million to their payroll signaling a change in philosophy and a willingness by owner Jeff Moorad to open the purse strings a little. Other good news is that in neither of these moves did they give up any of their top rated prospects, so their future looks good.

Let's pop the champagne and go get Matt Garza!

Nice deal by Cherington

Yes, I know I'm a Boston homer, but trading for Andrew Bailey was a good deal by new GM Ben Cherington. Filled a need, got a young, cost controlled closer and didn't give up the farm to get him.

The issue with Bailey will be health. He's spent time on the DL parts of the last 2 seasons and obviously that's a concern, but "if" they can keep him healthy, I think he'll thrive in Boston.

The medical staff in Boston has said they looked at all of Baileys records and they're comfortable with his medical history and concerns going forward, so we'll see.

As to what Boston gave up, it cost them outfielder Josh Reddick and 2 lower level minor league prospects (Miles Head, a 1st baseman and Raul Alcantara, a 19 yr old pitcher. Their 21st and 23rd ranked prospects in their minor league system). Reddick should excel in spacious Oakland Coliseum but Boston was content giving him up as they felt Ryan Kalish, a similar young prospect to Reddick, was ready to step up and give the big team everything Reddick would have.

Next up for Boston will probably be another starting pitcher.

Bill